“Just Hold and It’ll Rise” — Professional Analysis of Real‑Estate Price Trends

I invited you to start with old‑heard phrases
“Real estate always rises in price”
“Land prices never lie”
Sounding as solid as a big rock
But when you put them on the scale correctly, you find
They’re heavier on “belief” than on “reason”.
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The world of real estate
Prices don’t run in a straight line into the sky
They run in zigzags.
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One moment strong, one moment sluggish
And sometimes they roll back downhill
All of this doesn’t make “holding” wrong
It just makes us have to hold “right”
Rather than believe so much.
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When people in the industry say
“Real‑estate prices always go up if you hold it”
#That is the image plus the bias that fools us
Often comes from memories of the rising leg.
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A new BTS station neighbourhood
Marked as jobs & money hub
People rush to buy real estate
Then prices climb in steps
Whoever passed through that period feels
“It’s normal” it will keep going up.
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This is exactly survivorship‑bias
We only remember the survivors and the standout projects
Forget the condos that didn’t sell for many years
Forget the shophouses stuck in zoning plans
And the areas where jobs flowed out.
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#The long‑term graph
Can rise — but not everywhere, not always, and not for every type.
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Long term if you talk about “high‑potential land” in major city
The curve generally steepens from 4 main forces:

1. Inflation and construction costs that never drop

2. New land cannot be created anymore

3. Infrastructure expanding the economic centre

4. Incomes of people in certain jobs clustering here.
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   But the same curve has zigzags
   Interest rates up, credit controls out, second‑hand market surplus
   Or demand falls from some demographic groups
   These things make price “flat for a long time”
   or “temporarily retreat”.
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   If you look at the big graph of land in Bangkok or major city
   The line really rises long‑term
   Because new land cannot be created
   Inflation pushes construction costs up
   Infrastructure expands
   And economy pulls people into the city
   But in the details the graph is full of “waves”.
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   Some years prices leap from BTS station news
   Some years utterly flat because condo supply saturated
   Some years price retreats because interest rate too high for buyers
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   Therefore anyone who says “Just hold it it’ll go up”
   They might speak from a 20‑30 year view
   But if you hold 5‑7 years in the wrong location
   You might only meet silence.
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   #What are the real “up‑drivers”?
   The true drivers, not just hope

5. True scarcity
   Supply limited “by nature”
   For example zones where building height cannot go high
   Top job hubs that are hard to expand
   So highest‑and‑best‑use pushes land value well above average.
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6. Replacement cost
   If resale price falls below cost to build a new project
   Time will be our friend
   Because developer doesn’t supply new until resale price catches up.
   .

7. Infrastructure that “actually happens”
   BTS station opens, expressway finishes
   Flagship hospital/university comes
   Bringing quality people in to live and work
   Not just rumours on the internet.
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8. Jobs and incomes growing in the area
   Housing follows people, salary and business
   Not just taglines on a billboard.
   .
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   #What are the “down‑pull” or “no‑rise” forces?

9. Local supply saturation
   Micro‐location condos too dense
   Rental units competing each other
   Yield shrinking
   Buyers for actual living have more choices
   So overall price stays flat for long.
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10. Interest rates and loan criteria
    Higher funding cost reduces real purchasing power
    No matter how famous the project.
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11. Tax policy and regulation
    Land & building tax, transfer/ mortgage fees
    Zoning rules
    These alter the return equation.
    .

12. Product obsolescence (product risk)
    A tiny unit once sold well
    Because a trend at one time
    But steep decline later
    Building amenities, sauna, pool, view and parking
    Become “cost” not “value”.
    .

13. Demographics & behaviour
    City that jobs migrate away
    Area where working‑age people move out
    Flexible work patterns increase
    Reset demand and prices.
    .
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    #Timing your hold
    “What to hold” is as important as “when to hold”.
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14. Vacant land in dense job area
    Often grows with “future highest‑and‑best‑use”
    More than residences
    But must accept volatility from zoning and wait long.
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15. Quality low‑rise in school/hospital/job zone
    Has base of actual living buyers
    So price withstands turbulence better.
    .

16. Condos in micro‑location with clear identity
    Near functioning station
    Heart of jobs‑shops‑lifestyle
    And adequate parking
    These resist depreciation better than “near station but no job”.
    .

17. Assets that generate real cashflow
    Like small warehouse/office/shophouse in growth zone
    Price rises with rental from tenants whose income increases.
    .
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    #Time does not heal all wounds
    Because there is a cost of “holding”.
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    Holding long is not free
    We pay with interest
    Alternative missed investments
    Land tax, common fees, maintenance, and time to manage.
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    If price flat for 5‑7 years
    While we pay holding cost each month
    Net return could be lower than a bond fund.
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    Therefore long hold needs a “cash‑flow plan”
    Not just “hope the price rises”.
    .
    .
    I will give 3 short real‑life examples from the field

Example 1: A small alley but dense with jobs
Small plot behind alley
Coffee shop average 200 baht per cup
Week‑day afternoon still queues
Around are agency offices and tech‑startup
Height‑limit on buildings
So usable area soared
Land value rose with rental ceiling up each year
This is “rise because higher utility was realised”.
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Example 2: Trendy condo at the time of station launch
Launch with full promotion
Show unit very pretty
Bought fearing missing train station
When built many thousand units supply in district
Rental competition heavy, yield low
New projects push common fee higher
So early resale must sell at cost or small loss
This is “flat for long time” not “rise continuously”.
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Example 3: Old town‑home but repurposed
Zone with top school and specialist clinic
Owner buys old townhouse
Renovates floor‑plan to Home‑Office
Rental income re‑based from business tenants, not just living tenants
Resale rises by proven rental
This is “rise because we made it rise”.
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#Take to phone: Mind‑frame for professionals
Start with “micro economics of the area”
Rather than “big slogans of the city”
Point finger at micro‑location and ask 5 direct questions
• Where do the jobs come from?
• Who truly pays the rent to us?
• How many new supply can still enter?
• Which infrastructure will open when and will it open?
• And will the asset type we hold become obsolete fast or slow?
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Then compare resale price with replacement cost
If purchase price is higher than replacement without reason of
Quality/brand/recoup time
Then we are paying “belief‑tax” rather than “market price”.
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Remember the return differential of real estate comes from 4 channels:
Net cashflow,
Price appreciation,
Debt reduction, and
Value added from improvement.
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If someone says “Hold it anyway it’ll go up”:
Ask “Go up in which channel and why?”
If no verifiable answer
That’s hope. Not an investment plan.
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#Signals to check before you decide to hold long
Don’t rely on luck. Rely on measurable data:
Rental vacancy rate in area
Average listing time of similar asset
Actual discount at transfer day
Rate of wage increase in base tenant industry
Budget & timeline of infrastructure projects “signed already”
Not just hearsay.
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Close with a simple stress test:
If interest rate rises another 1‑2% can we still hold?
If your answer is “Hope it doesn’t rise”
That’s not investment. That’s prayer.
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Back to the opening question
“Just hold and the price will always go up” — what’s the conclusion?
Short answer:
#Not always true.
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#True for
The right type of asset, in the right place, at the right time
With real scarcity
And backed by economic activity that truly grows—not just a slide.
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#And not true for
The wrong type of asset, at wrong timing, at wrong price
Even if location is city‑level good
But micro location saturated
Or product becomes obsolete fast
Price may lie flat so long
Until holding cost overtakes return.
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I, as agent, investor, field‑player every day
We are not forced to believe any trend
We are forced to manage reality
Select assets whose numbers work
Rather than let story do the work for the numbers.
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Buy with reason
Hold with cash‑flow
Improve with utility
And sell with discipline
Then you will find that “real‑estate price rises”
Are a by‑product of system thinking
Not a gift from time.
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#Summary
If you hold to hope for rise: choose “what time is on our side”.
If you hold to create return: make “time work for you”
Both rent‑reduce debt‑improve value.
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When you hold proper
Price will rise “because of reason”
Not “because of comfort words”
And that is
How to hold real‑estate like a true professional.

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